Greenland and global climate regulation: what happens with the melting and what is at risk

Greenland is at the center of the international media spotlight. The debate about the future of this remote region of the planet is circulating between political statements, economic interests, strategic and military movements. What does science tell us about a territory that is key to the global climate? Three expert voices from CREAF who work in this area explain the impact of the melting ice, the accelerated warming that the region is experiencing compared to other parts of the world and their concern about the fact that the United States government wants to own Greenland.
On the one hand, Mariana García Criado , a Marie Skłodowska-Curie researcher at CREAF, made an expedition to western Greenland two years ago to study the richness and composition of bryophyte and lichen plant species ; this study was a precursor to the BIPOLAR project .

On the other hand, researcher Sergi Pla , who has been traveling throughout Greenland for more than 30 years, studies how global change affects the Arctic and how these changes also affect, in turn, the global climate , based on records of lake sediments. Which are a true natural archive of the climate and environmental changes of the last 8,000 years. He has visited places such as Zackenberg in NE Greenland, where there is one of the most important scientific stations in the Arctic . He has also made expeditions to the fjords of Kangerlussuaq, to Ilulissat (east Greenland) where we find the glacier that contributes the most ice to the world's ocean (Jakobshavn Isbræ is Sermeq Kujalleq moves about 17 km of ice per year contributing about 35 km3 annually), and to the Nuussuaq peninsula (north of Ilulissat). Soon, in April, he will return to make a new expedition to Qaanaaq, a peninsula located in the northwest of Greenland.

Finally, researcher Sara Marañón is researching the impact of warming on Arctic soil in Iceland through the SOCRATES project . Among other things, she is studying the increase in greenhouse gas emissions that have been stored in the soil for thousands of years. The research results are a window into the future of what may happen to Arctic soil in other regions of the world, such as Greenland.

The Arctic is one of the most sensitive regions to global change and is suffering particularly intensely from the effects of climate change. This is due to a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification , which causes warming to be much faster than the rest of the planet. Currently, there is talk of an increase of up to 6 °C compared to the pre-industrial era, a figure much higher than that observed in the Mediterranean, which has already exceeded approximately 4 °C of increase, above the global average.

This accelerated warming has serious and multiple consequences. On the one hand, it can bring the Arctic region to critical thresholds, from which feedback processes are activated that are difficult to stop . One of them is albedo: as there is less sea ice and snow surface, solar radiation is not reflected and is absorbed by the ocean and the land surface.

With all this, the melting is increasingly visible. One of the most striking sensations", explains Sergi Pla, "was during an expedition with geographer Marc Oliva (UB) and geologist Santiago Giralt (GEO3BCN-CSIC) to the Qingaussarsuaq peninsula, north of Illuisat, where the retreat of the glaciers was recorded. The magnitude of the glacial dynamics in recent millennia made us feel like we were insignificant.

But what happens in the Arctic does not stay there, but resonates in other parts of the world. In fact, the climate of the entire northern hemisphere depends, to a large extent, on what happens in the Arctic , and any alteration can have effects. “We can say that Greenland and the Arctic Ocean are a particularly key region for the planet, since its enormous mass of ice and its dynamics act as a regulator of the global climate,” warns Pla.

On the one hand, changes in Arctic snowfall patterns, accelerated melting, and global warming are altering atmospheric and ocean circulation currents. This phenomenon directly affects the jet stream , a mass of air that circulates at high speed in the upper atmosphere.

According to Pla, "when this current is altered, the masses of cold or warm air move in an anomalous way". The atmospheric current then presents deep undulations: it is directed towards more southern latitudes (bringing cold air south) or towards higher areas (displacing warm air north). These oscillations give rise to extreme or infrequent meteorological episodes throughout the northern hemisphere, and specifically in Europe, such as cold waves, heat waves, droughts or persistent rains. In addition, these currents move from east to west, which means that "the phenomena that occur in one region can have completely opposite effects in another"

This winter 2025-2026, the relationship between Arctic pressure and weather in Europe is defined by a negative or highly "altered" phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) where, instead of a strong polar vortex trapping icy air at the North Pole, the accumulation of high pressures over the Arctic acts as a "Greenland lock" that forces polar air to overflow southward (jet stream undulation). According to researcher Pla, the key this year is the precise location of this high pressure center: the anticyclone has been strategically located east of Greenland and over Scandinavia , functioning as a "weather dam" that diverts the usual flow of the Atlantic and forces the jet stream to undulate in deep loops. This configuration facilitates the arrival of cold air directly into the heart of Europe and contrasts with the winters mild in recent years, when the anticyclone was located on the other side of the Arctic, acting as a shield that protected the continent from polar air masses.

Another important consequence of the melting is the possible alteration of the carbon cycle , with potential impacts on the global climate system. “In the Arctic, we observe that the melting releases ancient atmospheric carbon that had been stored in the soil for centuries,” explains Sara Marañón . In other words, it will go from being a carbon store to an emitter.

In this sense, Mariana García Criado also studies how the impact of permafrost thawing can transform tundra ecosystems into other types of habitats. For example, the growth of shrubs has been observed due to the release of nutrients in the soil and permafrost.

If the United States were to take over Greenland, it is clear that there would be significant changes. On the one hand, scientific research in the region could be seriously affected. According to researcher Sergi Pla, “ legal changes could appear regarding access to areas, sampling permits and other possible complications at the borders that could limit studies on climate change”. In fact, the United States is stopping funding many scientific studies linked to climate change, and has even banned some scientific voices from participating in IPBES, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. “If we look at Antarctica, they have already withdrawn many scientific vessels there, so it would not be surprising to see the same trend in the Arctic in a while”, warns Alícia Pérez-Porro, Head of Political Interaction and Institutional Relations at CREAF.

On the other hand, in a region as remote as the Arctic, international collaboration is key to continuing scientific studies and having access to established scientific infrastructures . Plan specifies that “currently there are scientists from the United States participating in many projects, and it must be taken into account that not all of North American society thinks the same way, but a geopolitical movement like this could compromise some relationships between institutions.”

Warnings about possible geopolitical movements also put the spotlight on the consequences for indigenous communities , since many scientific projects depend directly on the participation of the local population. “Buying people can be very dangerous,” warns Pla. This type of political strategy can generate distrust, internal divisions and rejection of some activities , just at a time when scientific research is working to increasingly involve local communities, for example in the collection of samples or the use of drones. “In Canada, for example, if there is no such involvement in a project, it is not even approved,” he adds.

Greenland has around 56,000 inhabitants, spread out in scattered settlements made up of prefabricated wooden houses. The daily life of the Inuit, the indigenous people, is greatly marked by geographical isolation and extreme climate. “A large part of the indigenous culture has been historically marginalized,” explains researcher Mariana García Criado, who points out that “these populations are the true heart of Greenland and who know its landscapes, its rhythms and its history best.”

In short, any impact resulting from possible colonization or external pressure on its people, natural resources or landscapes would have enormous consequences, not only for Greenland, but also on a global scale. The scientific community argues that this territory must be respected and protected as it is .

The European Commission has launched a consultation aimed at the scientific community across Europe to help reformulate the current European Arctic policy, in the context of the new international geopolitical scenario . Among the key areas of the consultation are the environmental impacts and effects of climate change in the Arctic region . “It is in this area where CREAF will contribute our experience and scientific vision on the future of this key region of the planet,” says Alicia Pérez-Porro. The contribution is being worked on and will be delivered to the Commission during the month of March.