CREAF talks with Antoine Guisan - From Species Distribution Models to Spatial Predictions of Nature Contributions to People

Climate change and biodiversity decline are two major crises humanity is facing. Both crises are susceptible to threaten nature’s contribution to peoples (NCPs) and thus human well-being. It is thus essential to find strategies for protecting key areas for both biodiversity and NCPs. However, most NCP maps still rely on land-cover indicators that overlook how biodiversity supports these contributions. We propose that species-level data, widely used in biodiversity mapping, can better inform direct NCP predictions through the development of species-NCP relational tables, leading to the new concept of Species’ Contributions to People (SCP). Linking these SCPs with species distribution models and global change scenarios can then allow yielding spatial predictions of NCP that more directly based on species information. This approach has the potential to foster integrated biodiversity–NCP planning and to better support conservation goals. Based on a recently established table of relationships between more than 2,000 native vertebrate and tracheophyte species and 17 NCPs in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate the novel approach for the present and the future. Spatial predictions of the different NCPs expectedly show distinct patterns, highlighting the potential of the approach to provide a better understanding of the way species contribute to NCP and human well-being, and how it could change in the future. Yet, the development of species-NCP tables should continue and expand. More robust SDM predictions must also be developed for large number of species. This outlines key methodological challenges and research needs and further encourages collective progress to advance species-NCP knowledge for a transformative shift in how we assess and manage biodiversity and NCP. 

Who is Antoine Guisan?

Antoine Guisan is professor in plant ecology and leading the spatial ecology group ECOSPAT at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland. His main focus is on spatial predictive modelling of plant and animal distributions. Besides the methodological interest in developing models and approaches, his group applies models to answer various questions, such as understanding what drives species’ ranges, assessing the potential impact of climate change on species and communities, forecasting biological invasions, and prioritizing biodiversity conservation, with a particular and long-standing emphasis on mountain biota.