Batllori E., De Cáceres M., Brotons L., Ackerly D.D., Moritz M.A., Lloret F. (2019) Compound fire-drought regimes promote ecosystem transitions in Mediterranean ecosystems. Journal of Ecology. 107: 1187-1198.LinkDoi: 10.1111/1365-2745.13115
Understanding ecosystem responses to compound disturbance regimes and the influence of specific sequences of events in determining ecosystem shifts remains a challenge. We use a modelling framework for Mediterranean-type ecosystems to assess the effects of fire–drought interactions on long-term vegetation dynamics and to identify disturbance-driven changes in trait composition (tree seeder vs. tree resprouter prevalence) and ecosystem state (forest vs. non-forest). Changes in tree seeder and the tree resprouter dominance show nonlinear, threshold-type trends over gradients of increasing compound disturbance frequency. Vegetation composition thresholds mostly occur in a narrow range of the compound fire–drought disturbance space. Additionally, trait compositional switches and the likelihood of sudden changes in ecosystem state are promoted by fire-drought interactions. Distinct sequences of disturbance events cause vegetation transitions, disrupting ecosystem resilience, even under moderate recurrence of individual disturbances. An extreme drought year followed by one or two large fire events promotes shifts from resprouter- to seeder dominance. Contrastingly, a large crown fire followed by an extreme drought promotes changes from seeder to resprouter dominance. This disturbance sequence is also a mechanism strong enough to trigger sudden shifts in ecosystem state (from forest to non-forest). Synthesis. Thresholds of change in vegetation composition occur over a narrow range of the modelled gradients of compound fire-drought recurrence, and the loss of ecosystem resilience is contingent on particular sequences of disturbance events. Overall, our findings highlight that disturbance interactions define the relative location of tipping points in ecosystem state, and that effects and feedbacks of compound disturbance regimes increase the long-term likelihood of sudden ecosystem shifts and, therefore, uncertainty in predicting vegetation state. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society
Batllori E., Dećaceres M., Brotons L., Ackerly D.D., Moritz M.A., Lloret F. (2017) Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems. Ecosphere. 8: 0-0.LinkDoi: 10.1002/ecs2.1906
The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterraneantype ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits and compound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrubland formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire-drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire-drought (synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence-as opposed to chronic dryness-can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the longterm coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrubland expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire-drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances. © 2017 Batllori et al.
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