Vilà-Cabrera A., Premoli A.C., Jump A.S. (2019) Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges. Global Change Biology. 25: 1549-1560.LinkDoi: 10.1111/gcb.14597
According to broad-scale application of biogeographical theory, widespread retractions of species' rear edges should be seen in response to ongoing climate change. This prediction rests on the assumption that rear edge populations are “marginal” since they occur at the limit of the species' ecological tolerance and are expected to decline in performance as climate warming pushes them to extirpation. However, conflicts between observations and predictions are increasingly accumulating and little progress has been made in explaining this disparity. We argue that a revision of the concept of marginality is necessary, together with explicit testing of population decline, which is increasingly possible as data availability improves. Such action should be based on taking the population perspective across a species' rear edge, encompassing the ecological, geographical and genetic dimensions of marginality. Refining our understanding of rear edge populations is essential to advance our ability to monitor, predict and plan for the impacts of environmental change on species range dynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
González-Díaz P., Cavers S., Iason G.R., Booth A., Russell J., Jump A.S. (2018) Weak isolation by distance and geographic diversity gradients persist in scottish relict pine forest. IForest. 11: 449-458.LinkDoi: 10.3832/ifor2454-011
Gene flow is one of the main factors shaping genetic diversity within and among tree populations, and occurs through pollen and seed dispersal. Recent findings of pollen-release asynchronies in distant populations of Scots pine (Pi-nus sylvestris L.) within Scotland suggest that gene dispersal among more distant populations might be less effective than previously thought. Limited gene dispersal is one of the major factors causing genetic structure for neutral markers, and pollen-release asynchrony could have driven isolation by distance (IBD) among Scottish populations. Previous studies of neutral markers found little differentiation among Scottish populations of Scots pine, however they did not consider IBD over the full Scottish range. We analysed data from 6 nuclear simple sequence repeats (SSR) and 5 chloroplast SSR loci in a total of 540 individuals of Scots pine from 18 populations across Scotland. Our aim was to assess contemporary levels and distribution of genetic variation and to test if the distribution of genetic diversity was consistent with IBD. We also analysed patterns of gene flow that could have contributed to the observed patterns of variation. Levels of genetic diversity were high, for both nuclear and chloroplast markers within populations, and there was no significant differentiation among populations. A weak signal of IBD was present. We found an increase in nuclear diversity towards the East along with greater gene flow in a West-East direction commensurate with the prevailing winds. Our findings suggest that this wind-driven gene flow is dominant over genetic drift and prevents differentiation among the Scottish populations. It may also counteract any pollen-release asynchronies among populations. © SISEF.
González-Díaz, P., Jump, A.S., Perry, A., Wachowiak, W., Lapshina, E., Cavers, S. (2017) Ecology and management history drive spatial genetic structure in Scots pine. Forest Ecology and Management. 400: 68-76.LinkDoi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.05.035
Greenwood, S., Ruiz-Benito, P., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Lloret, F., Kitzberger, T., Allen, C.D., Fensham, R., Laughlin, D.C., Kattge, J., Bönisch, G., Kraft, N.J.B., Jump, A.S. (2017) Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area. Ecology Letters. 20: 539-553.LinkDoi: 10.1111/ele.12748
Jump, A.S., Ruiz-Benito, P., Greenwood, S., Allen, C.D., Kitzberger, T., Fensham, R., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Lloret, F. (2017) Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback. Global Change Biology. : 0-0.LinkDoi: 10.1111/gcb.13636
Matías, L., Castro, J., Villar-Salvador, P., Quero, J.L., Jump, A.S. (2017) Differential impact of hotter drought on seedling performance of five ecologically distinct pine species. Plant Ecology. 218: 201-212.LinkDoi: 10.1007/s11258-016-0677-7
Matías, L., Linares, J.C., Sánchez-Miranda, A., Jump, A.S. (2017) Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity. Global Change Biology. : 0-0.LinkDoi: 10.1111/gcb.13627
Ruiz-Benito, P., Ratcliffe, S., Zavala, M.A., Martínez-Vilalta, J., Vilà-Cabrera, A., Lloret, F., Madrigal-González, J., Wirth, C., Greenwood, S., Kändler, G., Lehtonen, A., Kattge, J., Dahlgren, J., Jump, A.S. (2017) Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality. Global Change Biology. : 0-0.LinkDoi: 10.1111/gcb.13728
Sjölund, M.J., González-Díaz, P., Moreno-Villena, J.J., Jump, A.S. (2017) Understanding the legacy of widespread population translocations on the post-glacial genetic structure of the European beech, Fagus sylvatica L.. Journal of Biogeography. : 0-0.LinkDoi: 10.1111/jbi.13053
Tiwari, A., Fan, Z.-X., Jump, A.S., Zhou, Z.-K. (2017) Warming induced growth decline of Himalayan birch at its lower range edge in a semi-arid region of Trans-Himalaya, central Nepal. Plant Ecology. : 1-13.LinkDoi: 10.1007/s11258-017-0716-z
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