Cardador L., Caceres M.D., Giralt D., Bota G., Aquilue N., Arroyo B., Mougeot F., Cantero-Martinez C., Viladomiu L., Rosell J., Casas F., Estrada A., Alvaro-Fuentes J., Brotons L. (2015) Tools for exploring habitat suitability for steppe birds under land use change scenarios. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 200: 119-125.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.11.013
In this study, scenario development based on changes in key socioeconomic drivers (namely, the prices of conventional food products, rural development policies and agro-environmental regulations) was used together with resource-based habitat suitability models to develop plausible visions of future pathways of agricultural land use and evaluate their potential consequences on conservation of target species. Analyses focused on three steppe bird species in a protected Natura 2000 area, located in the Iberian Peninsula. Our results showed that changes in land use composition under different scenarios can have important effects on habitat suitability, but that the size of those effects would vary depending on species-specific requirements and spatial distribution of land use changes. Positive effects of some new crops in the study area (grain legumes and aromatic plants) on studied species were suggested by our analyses. A positive effect of aggregation of land use changes was also found for two of the studied species. Scenario building and forecasting using transferable inter-disciplinary knowledge can therefore improve our capability to anticipate future changes and provide timely advice towards long-term conservation planning in agricultural systems. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Ceauşu S., Carver S., Verburg P.H., Kuechly H.U., Hölker F., Brotons L., Pereira H.M. (2015) European wilderness in a time of farmland abandonment. Rewilding European Landscapes. : 25-46.EnllaçDoi: 10.1007/978-3-319-12039-3_2
Wilderness is a multidimensional concept that has evolved from an aesthetic idea to a science-based conservation approach. We analyze here several subjective and ecological dimensions of wilderness in Europe: Human access from roads and settlements, impact of artificial night light, deviation from potential natural vegetation and proportion of harvested primary productivity. As expected, high wilderness in Europe is concentrated mainly in low primary productivity areas at high latitudes and in mountainous regions. The use of various wilderness metrics also reveals additional aspects, allowing the identification of regional differences in the types of human impact and a better understanding of future modifications of wilderness values in the context of land-use change. This is because farmland abandonment in the next decades is projected to occur especially at intermediate wilderness values in marginal agricultural landscapes, and thus can release additional areas for wild ecosystems. Although the subjective wilderness experience will likely improve at a slower pace due to the long-term persistence of infrastructures, the ecological effects of higher resource availability and landscape connectivity will have direct positive impacts on wildlife. Positive correlation between megafauna species richness and wilderness indicate that they spatially coincide and for abandoned areas close to high wilderness areas, these species can provide source populations for the recovery of the European biota. Challenges remain in bringing together different views on rewilding and in deciding the best management approach for expanding wilderness on the continent. However the prospects are positive for the growth of self-regulating ecosystems, natural ecological processes and the wilderness experience in Europe. © The Author(s) 2015.
Duane A., Pique M., Castellnou M., Brotons L. (2015) Predictive modelling of fire occurrences from different fire spread patterns in Mediterranean landscapes. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24: 407-418.EnllaçDoi: 10.1071/WF14040
Fire regimes are shifting worldwide because of global changes. The relative contribution of climate, topography and vegetation greatly determines spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes, but the interplay of these factors is not yet well understood. We introduce here a novel classification of fires according to dominant fire spread pattern, an approach considered in operational firefighting, to help understand regional-scale spatial variability in fire regimes. Here, we studied whether climate, topography and fuel variables allowed the prediction of occurrences from different fire spread patterns in Catalonia, NE Spain. We used a correlative modelling approach based on maximum entropy methods, and examined, through variation partitioning, the relative contribution of different factors on determining their occurrence. Our results accurately predicted the occurrence of different fire spread patterns, and the results were consistent when temporal validation was conducted. Although forest fuel factors made a higher contribution to the occurrence of convective fires, wind-driven fires were strongly related to topographic and climate factors. These findings may have a strong impact on investigations into how fire regimes may be projected into the future under forecast global change as they suggest that future environmental changes may affect different fire spread patterns in an idiosyncratic manner. © IAWF 2015.
Gil-Tena A., De Caceres M., Ernoult A., Butet A., Brotons L., Burel F. (2015) Agricultural landscape composition as a driver of farmland bird diversity in Brittany (NW France). Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 205: 79-89.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.agee.2015.03.013
In agriculture-dominated landscapes, agricultural intensification and associated landscape homogenization have caused large declines in farmland biodiversity. This study was aimed at determining how agricultural landscape composition drives community diversity and composition of farmland birds in the characteristic bocage landscape in Brittany (NW France) on a broad scale. Using bird atlas data from the region (2004-2008; 10. ×. 10. km), we analyzed the importance of different components of agricultural landscape composition (types of crops, amount of semi-natural covers and elements, and artificial lands) on the alpha diversity and beta diversity of farmland birds of different functional groups, defined depending on the degree of farmland specialization and ecological requirements.Agricultural landscape composition features explained a small amount of variation in alpha and beta diversity, particularly for specialists and residents. Cereal crops were negatively correlated with alpha diversity of all the functional groups considered whereas rotational grasslands were negatively associated with migrant and insectivorous alpha diversity. Although shrublands are not common in Brittany, they were positively associated with the occurrence of some species and particularly with alpha diversity of all the functional groups but specialists and residents. At the spatial grain of analysis, community composition was mainly driven by a gradient of alteration of the bocage.To conclude, we claim for the consideration of regional idiosyncrasies in far-reaching planning schemes to prevent future biodiversity loss in agriculture-dominated landscapes due to agricultural intensification. In view of the observed large-scale trends gathered from atlas data analysis and the small amount of explained variation, we also advocate for subsequent finer scale bespoke surveys to determine the biodiversity status associated with the valuable bocage agricultural landscape. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
HERRANDO S., BROTONS L., ANTON M., PARAMO F., VILLERO D., TITEUX N., QUESADA J., STEFANESCU C. (2015) Assessing impacts of land abandonment on Mediterranean biodiversity using indicators based on bird and butterfly monitoring data. Environmental Conservation. : 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1017/S0376892915000260
In Europe, and particularly in the Mediterranean Basin, the abandonment of traditional land-use practices has been reported as one of the main causes of decline for open-habitat species. Data from large-scale bird and butterfly monitoring schemes in the north-east Iberian Peninsula were used to evaluate the impact that land abandonment has had on local biodiversity. Species’ habitat preferences, along a gradient from open to forest habitats, were significantly related to population trends: for both birds and butterflies, open-habitat species showed the most marked declines while forest species increased moderately. Multi-species indicators for tracking the impact of land abandonment on bird and butterfly populations were developed using habitat preference estimates and population trend indices. The patterns shown by these indicators were in line with the changes occurring in forest cover in the monitoring sites. This study reveals that multi-species indicators based on monitoring data from different taxonomic groups (here, birds and butterflies) may usefully be employed to track impacts of environmental change on biodiversity. Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2015
Regos A., D'Amen M., Titeux N., Herrando S., Guisan A., Brotons L. (2015) Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios. Diversity and Distributions. : 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/ddi.12375
Aim: Global environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. Location: Catalonia, Spain. Methods: Potential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. Results: Our results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusions: Such predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000 may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Rubio L., Bodin O., Brotons L., Saura S. (2015) Connectivity conservation priorities for individual patches evaluated in the present landscape: How durable and effective are they in the long term?. Ecography. 38: 782-791.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/ecog.00935
One of the most widespread approaches for setting spatially-explicit priorities for connectivity conservation consists in evaluating the effects of the individual removal of each habitat patch (one at a time) from the landscape. It however remains unknown the degree to which such priorities are valid and reliable in the longer term, as subsequent habitat losses and other disruptions accumulate in the landscape. We compared the patch prioritizations and estimated connectivity losses resulting from individual patch removals and from a more exhaustive assessment accounting for the potentially synergistic impacts of multiple habitat losses by testing all possible combinations of patch removals. Habitat availability (reachability) metrics and metapopulation capacity were calculated in purposefully simulated landscapes and in habitat distribution data for three bird species (NE Spain). We found that 1) individual patch removals allowed identifying areas of low contribution to connectivity that remained so after subsequent network modifications, 2) the most important patches identified through individual removals often did not coincide with those patches whose removal would actually be most detrimental after multiple habitat losses. However, these differences were smaller for the habitat reachability metrics, as well as for very mobile species that were largely insensitive to habitat spatial arrangement. If many patch losses over time are likely, it might be a more robust and fruitful conservation strategy for managers to pinpoint those patches that, with a low negative impact on connectivity, can be converted to other land uses, instead of trying to elucidate through individual patch removals which subset of protected patches would be the most effective for conserving as much connectivity as possible in the long term. Individual patch removals provide useful but non-permanent guidelines that may need to be reassessed when substantial landscape modifications occur, which requires dynamic strategies for connectivity conservation in the face of global change. © 2014 The Authors.
Aizpurua O., Paquet J.-Y., Brotons L., Titeux N. (2014) Optimising long-term monitoring projects for species distribution modelling: How atlas data may help. Ecography. : 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/ecog.00749
Long-term biodiversity monitoring data are mainly used to estimate changes in species occupancy or abundance over time, but they may also be incorporated into predictive models to document species distributions in space. Although changes in occupancy or abundance may be estimated from a relatively limited number of sampling units, small sample size may lead to inaccurate spatial models and maps of predicted species distributions. We provide a methodological approach to estimate the minimum sample size needed in monitoring projects to produce accurate species distribution models and maps. The method assumes that monitoring data are not yet available when sampling strategies are to be designed and is based on external distribution data from atlas projects. Atlas data are typically collected in a large number of sampling units during a restricted timeframe and are often similar in nature to the information gathered from long-term monitoring projects. The large number of sampling units in atlas projects makes it possible to simulate a broad gradient of sample sizes in monitoring data and to examine how the number of sampling units influences the accuracy of the models. We apply the method to several bird species using data from a regional breeding bird atlas. We explore the effect of prevalence, range size and habitat specialization of the species on the sample size needed to generate accurate models. Model accuracy is sensitive to particularly small sample sizes and levels off beyond a sufficiently large number of sampling units that varies among species depending mainly on their prevalence. The integration of spatial modelling techniques into monitoring projects is a cost-effective approach as it offers the possibility to estimate the dynamics of species distributions in space and over time. We believe our innovative method will help in the sampling design of future monitoring projects aiming to achieve such integration. © 2014 The Authors.
Cardador L., De Caceres M., Bota G., Giralt D., Casas F., Arroyo B., Mougeot F., Cantero-Martiez C., Moncunill J., Butler S.J., Brotons L. (2014) A resource-based modelling framework to assess habitat suitability for steppe birds in semiarid Mediterranean agricultural systems. PLoS ONE. 9: 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092790
European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species' key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site), and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species' distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species' occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species) than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models. © 2014 Cardador et al.
Herrando S., Anton M., Sarda-Palomera F., Bota G., Gregory R.D., Brotons L. (2014) Indicators of the impact of land use changes using large-scale bird surveys: Land abandonment in a Mediterranean region. Ecological Indicators. 45: 235-244.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.04.011
Developing sound indicators of biodiversity impact has been identified as a critical step towards our understanding of how global change components are affecting the environment across the globe. Land abandonment is recognized as a major component of global change in the Mediterranean basin, however, we lack adequate, quantitative, indicators of its impact on biodiversity. An appealing approach to develop biodiversity indicators is the use of large-scale bird monitoring projects, an important source of information that is already available in many countries. In this study we develop a method to quantify the impact of the two main processes associated with land abandonment in the Mediterranean region, namely the abandonment of farmland, which produces a shift from cultivated land to open natural habitats, and the encroachment by vegetation usually associated with reductions in livestock grazing and wood harvesting practices. We used data from bird atlas and monitoring schemes in Catalonia (north-east Iberian Peninsula) to characterize species' population response to these processes by means of detecting quantitative changes in relative abundances along a gradient ranging from habitats not affected by a given driving force to those that arise as a consequence of such force. We then generated multi-species indicators of the impact of these land use changes using these specific population responses to calibrate the relative contribution of each species in the composite index. The temporal patterns depicted by the two indicators in the period 2002-2011 show that vegetation encroachment did have a significant impact on bird communities, whereas any noticeable effect of farmland abandonment on bird populations was observed. The methodology proposed here could be employed to develop indicators capable to track biological impacts of land use change on an annual basis and inform decision-makers about the rate of increase or decrease on wildlife populations. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
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