Cardador L., Caceres M.D., Giralt D., Bota G., Aquilue N., Arroyo B., Mougeot F., Cantero-Martinez C., Viladomiu L., Rosell J., Casas F., Estrada A., Alvaro-Fuentes J., Brotons L. (2015) Tools for exploring habitat suitability for steppe birds under land use change scenarios. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 200: 119-125.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.11.013
In this study, scenario development based on changes in key socioeconomic drivers (namely, the prices of conventional food products, rural development policies and agro-environmental regulations) was used together with resource-based habitat suitability models to develop plausible visions of future pathways of agricultural land use and evaluate their potential consequences on conservation of target species. Analyses focused on three steppe bird species in a protected Natura 2000 area, located in the Iberian Peninsula. Our results showed that changes in land use composition under different scenarios can have important effects on habitat suitability, but that the size of those effects would vary depending on species-specific requirements and spatial distribution of land use changes. Positive effects of some new crops in the study area (grain legumes and aromatic plants) on studied species were suggested by our analyses. A positive effect of aggregation of land use changes was also found for two of the studied species. Scenario building and forecasting using transferable inter-disciplinary knowledge can therefore improve our capability to anticipate future changes and provide timely advice towards long-term conservation planning in agricultural systems. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Gil-Tena A., De Caceres M., Ernoult A., Butet A., Brotons L., Burel F. (2015) Agricultural landscape composition as a driver of farmland bird diversity in Brittany (NW France). Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 205: 79-89.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.agee.2015.03.013
In agriculture-dominated landscapes, agricultural intensification and associated landscape homogenization have caused large declines in farmland biodiversity. This study was aimed at determining how agricultural landscape composition drives community diversity and composition of farmland birds in the characteristic bocage landscape in Brittany (NW France) on a broad scale. Using bird atlas data from the region (2004-2008; 10. ×. 10. km), we analyzed the importance of different components of agricultural landscape composition (types of crops, amount of semi-natural covers and elements, and artificial lands) on the alpha diversity and beta diversity of farmland birds of different functional groups, defined depending on the degree of farmland specialization and ecological requirements.Agricultural landscape composition features explained a small amount of variation in alpha and beta diversity, particularly for specialists and residents. Cereal crops were negatively correlated with alpha diversity of all the functional groups considered whereas rotational grasslands were negatively associated with migrant and insectivorous alpha diversity. Although shrublands are not common in Brittany, they were positively associated with the occurrence of some species and particularly with alpha diversity of all the functional groups but specialists and residents. At the spatial grain of analysis, community composition was mainly driven by a gradient of alteration of the bocage.To conclude, we claim for the consideration of regional idiosyncrasies in far-reaching planning schemes to prevent future biodiversity loss in agriculture-dominated landscapes due to agricultural intensification. In view of the observed large-scale trends gathered from atlas data analysis and the small amount of explained variation, we also advocate for subsequent finer scale bespoke surveys to determine the biodiversity status associated with the valuable bocage agricultural landscape. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
Martin-Alcon S., Coll L., De Caceres M., Guitart L., Cabre M., Just A., Gonzalez-Olabarria J.R. (2015) Combining aerial LiDAR and multispectral imagery to assess postfire regeneration types in a Mediterranean forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 45: 856-866.EnllaçDoi: 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0430
Wildfires play a major role in driving vegetation changes and can cause important environmental and economic losses in Mediterranean forests, especially where the dominant species lacks efficient postfire regeneration mechanisms. In these areas, postdisturbance vegetation management strategies need to be based on detailed, spatially continuous inventories of the burned area. Here, we present a methodology in which we combine airborne LiDAR and multispectral imagery to assess postfire regeneration types in a spatially continuous way, using a Mediterranean black pine (Pinus nigra Arn ssp. salzmannii) forest that burned in 1998 as a case study. Five postfire regeneration types were obtained by clustering field-plot data using Ward's method. Two of the five regeneration types presented high tree cover (one clearly dominated by hardwoods and the other dominated by pines), a third type presented low to moderate tree cover, being dominated by hardwoods, and the remaining two types matched to areas dominated by soil–herbaceous or shrub layers with very low or no tree cover (i.e., very low to no tree species regeneration). These five types of regeneration were used to conduct a supervised classification of remote sensing data using a nonparametric supervised classification technique. Compared with independent field validation points, the remote sensing based assessment method resulted in a global classification accuracy of 82.7%. Proportions of regeneration types in the study area indicated a general shift from the former pine-dominated forest toward hardwood dominance and showed no serious problems of regeneration failure. Our methodological approach appears to be appropriate for informing postdisturbance vegetation management strategies over large areas. © 2015, (publisher). All Rights Reserved.
Cardador L., De Caceres M., Bota G., Giralt D., Casas F., Arroyo B., Mougeot F., Cantero-Martiez C., Moncunill J., Butler S.J., Brotons L. (2014) A resource-based modelling framework to assess habitat suitability for steppe birds in semiarid Mediterranean agricultural systems. PLoS ONE. 9: 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0092790
European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species' key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site), and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species' distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species' occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species) than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models. © 2014 Cardador et al.
Regos A., Aquilue N., Retana J., De Caceres M., Brotons L. (2014) Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in mediterranean forests. PLoS ONE. 9: 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0094906
Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. © 2014 Regos et al.
Brotons L., Aquilue N., de Caceres M., Fortin M.-J., Fall A. (2013) How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes. PLoS ONE. 8: 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062392
Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies. © 2013 Brotons et al.
De Caceres M., Brotons L., Aquilue N., Fortin M.-J. (2013) The combined effects of land-use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean. Journal of Biogeography. 40: 1535-1547.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/jbi.12111
Aim: We investigate first whether fire regimes resulting from the combination of climate change and fire-fighting policy may affect species distributions in Mediterranean landscapes, and second to what extent distributional dynamics may be constrained by the spatial legacy of historical land use. Location: Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). Methods: We modelled the distributional responses of 64 forest and open-habitat bird species to nine fire-regime scenarios, defined by combining different levels of climate change and fire suppression efficiency. A fire-succession model was used to stochastically simulate land-cover changes between 2000 and 2050 under these scenarios. We used species distribution models to predict habitat suitability and occupancy dynamics under either no dispersal or full dispersal assumptions. Results: Under many simulated scenarios, the succession from shrubland to forest dominated over the creation of new low-vegetation areas derived from wildfires. Consequently, open-habitat specialists were the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat. Fire regimes obtained under scenarios including high fire suppression efficiency resulted in a larger number of bird species experiencing reductions in their distribution area. Main conclusions: Anthropogenic factors, such as historical land-use change and fire suppression, can drive regional distribution dynamics in directions opposite to those expected from climatic trends. This raises the question of what drivers and interactions should be given priority in the prediction of biodiversity responses to global change at the regional scale. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
De Caceres M., Legendre P., He F. (2013) Dissimilarity measurements and the size structure of ecological communities. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 4: 1167-1177.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12116
Summary: Measurements of community resemblance in ecology are often based on species composition, and the starting point for calculations is usually a site-by-species data table. However, resemblance measurements may not be sufficiently accurate when communities are described using species composition only. Characteristics such as the size of their constituting organisms are also important to understand community organization. Here, we provide a framework that generalizes conventional resemblance measurements by incorporating the size structure of the compared communities. We first introduce the concept of cumulative abundance profile, which generalizes traditional species abundance values, and describe how to calculate it. We then explain our approach to compare cumulative abundance profiles in community resemblance measurements and use a small simulation study to determine which resemblance coefficients appropriately deal with compositional and structural differences. After that, we present an illustrative example where we study the structural and compositional variation between and within six Douglas-fir forest plots in British Columbia, Canada. According to our investigations, the generalizations we suggest for the percentage difference (alias Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) and the Ružička coefficients are appropriate to measure community resemblance in terms of size structure, species composition or both. Our framework allows community resemblance to be measured in terms of either size structure or species composition, or both. A broad range of applications is expected. In the case of terrestrial plant communities, potential applications include analyses of community dynamics and classification of vegetation. © 2013 British Ecological Society.
Legendre P., De Caceres M. (2013) Beta diversity as the variance of community data: Dissimilarity coefficients and partitioning. Ecology Letters. 16: 951-963.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/ele.12141
Beta diversity can be measured in different ways. Among these, the total variance of the community data table Y can be used as an estimate of beta diversity. We show how the total variance of Y can be calculated either directly or through a dissimilarity matrix obtained using any dissimilarity index deemed appropriate for pairwise comparisons of community composition data. We addressed the question of which index to use by coding 16 indices using 14 properties that are necessary for beta assessment, comparability among data sets, sampling issues and ordination. Our comparison analysis classified the coefficients under study into five types, three of which are appropriate for beta diversity assessment. Our approach links the concept of beta diversity with the analysis of community data by commonly used methods like ordination and anova. Total beta can be partitioned into Species Contributions (SCBD: degree of variation of individual species across the study area) and Local Contributions (LCBD: comparative indicators of the ecological uniqueness of the sites) to Beta Diversity. Moreover, total beta can be broken up into within- and among-group components by manova, into orthogonal axes by ordination, into spatial scales by eigenfunction analysis or among explanatory data sets by variation partitioning. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
De Cáceres M., Brotons L. (2012) Calibration of hybrid species distribution models: The value of general-purpose vs. targeted monitoring data. Diversity and Distributions. 18: 977-989.EnllaçDoi: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00899.x
Aim Temporally replicated observations are essential for the calibration and validation of species distribution models (SDMs) aiming at making temporal extrapolations. We study here the usefulness of a general-purpose monitoring programme for the calibration of hybrid SDMs. As a benchmark case, we take the calibration with data from a monitoring programme that specifically surveys those areas where environmental changes expected to be relevant occur. Location Catalonia, north-east of Spain. Methods We modelled the distribution changes of twelve open-habitat bird species in landscapes whose dynamics are driven by fire and forest regeneration. We developed hybrid SDMs combining correlative habitat suitability with mechanistic occupancy models. We used observations from two monitoring programmes to provide maximum-likelihood estimates for spread parameters: a common breeding bird survey (CBS) and a programme specifically designed to monitor bird communities within areas affected by wildfires (DINDIS). Results Both calibration with CBS and DINDIS data yielded sound spread parameter estimates and range dynamics that suggested dispersal limitations. However, compared to calibration with DINDIS data, calibration with CBS data leads to biased estimates of spread distance for seven species and to a higher degree of uncertainty in predicted range dynamics for six species. Main conclusions We have shown that available monitoring data can be used in the calibration of the mechanistic component of hybrid SDMs. However, if the dynamics of the target species occur within areas not well covered, general-purpose monitoring data can lead to biased and inaccurate parameter estimates. To determine the potential usefulness of a given monitoring data set for the calibration of the mechanistic component of a hybrid SDM, we recommend quantifying the number of surveyed sites that are predicted to undergo habitat suitability changes. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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