Roces-Díaz J.V., Vayreda J., Banqué-Casanovas M., Cusó M., Anton M., Bonet J.A., Brotons L., De Cáceres M., Herrando S., Martínez de Aragón J., de-Miguel S., Martínez-Vilalta J. (2018) Assessing the distribution of forest ecosystem services in a highly populated Mediterranean region. Ecological Indicators. 93: 986-997.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.076
Forest ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services to society and host high levels of biodiversity. Nevertheless, forest ecosystem services (ES) are often quantified and assessed using simplified methodologies (e.g., proxy methods based exclusively on Land Use Land Cover maps) that introduce substantial uncertainty in the analysis by ignoring, for instance, the species composition and spatial configuration of the ecosystems studied. In this work we defined and calculated a set of 12 indicators of several ES for the forests of the highly populated region of Catalonia (North-eastern Iberian Peninsula). The indicators combined different sources of information such as forest surveys, ecological model predictions and official statistics, but also included additional land cover information. All ES indicators were aggregated at the municipality level to compare their values and distribution patterns. We assessed spatial trade-offs and synergies among ES, as well as their relationships with a set of socioeconomic, climatic and biodiversity variables using correlation analyses and mixed-effects models. The results suggest a clustering of provisioning and regulating ES in mountainous zones towards the North of the study area. These two types of services showed a high degree of spatial similarity and presented high positive correlations. In contrast, cultural ES showed a more scattered pattern, which included lower elevation areas in the South of the study region. Climatic conditions were the main determinants of the spatial variability in the supply of the different ES, with most indicators being positively associated with precipitation and negatively associated with temperature. In addition, biodiversity (particularly woody species richness) showed positive relations with most of these ES, while socioeconomic variables (such as population density and the percentage employment in agriculture) showed negative associations with most of them. The combination of information from different data sources (including primary data) allowed for a detailed analysis of forest ES, likely removing some of the problems derived from approaches based only on proxy methods. In addition, the use of municipalities as study unit makes results directly relevant to management and planning strategies operating at this scale (e.g., forest management and planning). © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Ameztegui A., Cabon A., De Cáceres M., Coll L. (2017) Managing stand density to enhance the adaptability of Scots pine stands to climate change: A modelling approach. Ecological Modelling. 356: 141-150.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.04.006
In the Mediterranean region most climatic forecasts predict longer and more intense drought periods that can affect tree growth and mortality over broad geographic regions. One of the silvicultural treatments that has gained currency to lessen the impacts of climatic change is the reduction of stand density by thinning. However, we lack information on how the response of forest stands to different thinning treatments will be affected by climate change, and on the post-thinning temporal dynamics of water balance, specifically blue and green water. We adopted a modelling approach to explore the long-term effects of different thinning intensities on forest dynamics and water balance under climate change scenarios, coupling an individual-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE-ND) with a mechanistic model of soil moisture dynamics and plant drought stress. We used as a case study three Scots pine plots across a gradient of climatic conditions, and we assessed the effect of site, three climatic scenarios and eight thinning intensities on tree growth, stand productivity, tree drought stress and blue water. The best thinning intensity in terms of stand productivity was obtained when between 20 and 40% of the basal area was removed, whereas the final stand stock rapidly decreased at higher thinning intensities. Moreover, the decrease in final basal area occurred at lower thinning intensities the drier the site conditions. Moderate and heavy thinnings (>30%) doubled basal area increment (BAI) of the following years in all the plots, although the effect vanished after 30–40 years, independently of the site and climate scenario. As expected, thinning was simulated to have an overall positive effect on the blue water yield and tree water status, which increased and also tended to last longer for higher thinning intensities. However, the magnitude of this effect on tree water status was most dependent on the site and climatic scenario, as drier conditions generally raised stronger and longer lasting reductions in drought stress for a given thinning intensity. Furthermore, our results highlight the existence of a site- and climate-dependent trade-off between the gain in stand productivity and the improvement in tree water status obtained by thinning, particularly for moderate or heavy thinning intensities. Our simulations suggest that thinning is a useful management tool to mitigate climate change but strongly argue against the application of general recipes across sites and appeals for carefully taking into consideration local climatic trajectories for management planning. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.
Aquilué, N., De Cáceres, M., Fortin, M.-J., Fall, A., Brotons, L. (2017) A spatial allocation procedure to model land-use/land-cover changes: Accounting for occurrence and spread processes. Ecological Modelling. 344: 73-86.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.005
Batllori E., Dećaceres M., Brotons L., Ackerly D.D., Moritz M.A., Lloret F. (2017) Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems. Ecosphere. 8: 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1002/ecs2.1906
The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterraneantype ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits and compound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrubland formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire-drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire-drought (synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence-as opposed to chronic dryness-can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the longterm coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrubland expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire-drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances. © 2017 Batllori et al.
Hudson, L.N., Newbold, T., Contu, S., Hill, S.L.L., Lysenko, I., De Palma, A., Phillips, H.R.P., Alhusseini, T.I., Bedford, F.E., Bennett, D.J., Booth, H., Burton, V.J., Chng, C.W.T., Choimes, A., Correia, D.L.P., Day, J., Echeverría-Londoño, S., Emerson, S.R., Gao, D., Garon, M., Harrison, M.L.K., Ingram, D.J., Jung, M., Kemp, V., Kirkpatrick, L., Martin, C.D., Pan, Y., Pask-Hale, G.D., Pynegar, E.L., Robinson, A.N., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., Senior, R.A., Simmons, B.I., White, H.J., Zhang, H., Aben, J., Abrahamczyk, S., Adum, G.B., Aguilar-Barquero, V., Aizen, M.A., Albertos, B., Alcala, E.L., del Mar Alguacil, M., Alignier, A., Ancrenaz, M., Andersen, A.N., Arbeláez-Cortés, E., Armbrecht, I., Arroyo-Rodríguez, V., Aumann, T., Axmacher, J.C., Azhar, B., Azpiroz, A.B., Baeten, L., Bakayoko, A., Báldi, A., Banks, J.E., Baral, S.K., Barlow, J., Barratt, B.I.P., Barrico, L., Bartolommei, P., Barton, D.M., Basset, Y., Batáry, P., Bates, A.J., Baur, B., Bayne, E.M., Beja, P., Benedick, S., Berg, Å., Bernard, H., Berry, N.J., Bhatt, D., Bicknell, J.E., Bihn, J.H., Blake, R.J., Bobo, K.S., Bóçon, R., Boekhout, T., Böhning-Gaese, K., Bonham, K.J., Borges, P.A.V., Borges, S.H., Boutin, C., Bouyer, J., Bragagnolo, C., Brandt, J.S., Brearley, F.Q., Brito, I., Bros, V., Brunet, J., Buczkowski, G., Buddle, C.M., Bugter, R., Buscardo, E., Buse, J., Cabra-García, J., Cáceres, N.C., Cagle, N.L., Calviño-Cancela, M., Cameron, S.A., Cancello, E.M., Caparrós, R., Cardoso, P., Carpenter, D., Carrijo, T.F., Carvalho, A.L., Cassano, C.R., Castro, H., Castro-Luna, A.A., Rolando, C.B., Cerezo, A., Chapman, K.A., Chauvat, M., Christensen, M., Clarke, F.M., Cleary, D.F.R., Colombo, G., Connop, S.P., Craig, M.D., Cruz-López, L., Cunningham, S.A., D'Aniello, B., D'Cruze, N., da Silva, P.G., Dallimer, M., Danquah, E., Darvill, B., Dauber, J., Davis, A.L.V., Dawson, J., de Sassi, C., de Thoisy, B., Deheuvels, O., Dejean, A., Devineau, J.-L., Diekötter, T., Dolia, J.V., Domínguez, E., Dominguez-Haydar, Y., Dorn, S., Draper, I., Dreber, N., Dumont, B., Dures, S.G., Dynesius, M., Edenius, L., Eggleton, P., Eigenbrod, F., Elek, Z., Entling, M.H., Esler, K.J., de Lima, R.F., Faruk, A., Farwig, N., Fayle, T.M., Felicioli, A., Felton, A.M., Fensham, R.J., Fernandez, I.C., Ferreira, C.C., Ficetola, G.F., Fiera, C., Filgueiras, B.K.C., Fırıncıoğlu, H.K., Flaspohler, D., Floren, A., Fonte, S.J., Fournier, A., Fowler, R.E., Franzén, M., Fraser, L.H., Fredriksson, G.M., Freire, G.B., Frizzo, T.L.M., Fukuda, D., Furlani, D., Gaigher, R., Ganzhorn, J.U., García, K.P., Garcia-R, J.C., Garden, J.G., Garilleti, R., Ge, B.-M., Gendreau-Berthiaume, B., Gerard, P.J., Gheler-Costa, C., Gilbert, B., Giordani, P., Giordano, S., Golodets, C., Gomes, L.G.L., Gould, R.K., Goulson, D., Gove, A.D., Granjon, L., Grass, I., Gray, C.L., Grogan, J., Gu, W., Guardiola, M., Gunawardene, N.R., Gutierrez, A.G., Gutiérrez-Lamus, D.L., Haarmeyer, D.H., Hanley, M.E., Hanson, T., Hashim, N.R., Hassan, S.N., Hatfield, R.G., Hawes, J.E., Hayward, M.W., Hébert, C., Helden, A.J., Henden, J.-A., Henschel, P., Hernández, L., Herrera, J.P., Herrmann, F., Herzog, F., Higuera-Diaz, D., Hilje, B., Höfer, H., Hoffmann, A., Horgan, F.G., Hornung, E., Horváth, R., Hylander, K., Isaacs-Cubides, P., Ishida, H., Ishitani, M., Jacobs, C.T., Jaramillo, V.J., Jauker, B., Hernández, F.J., Johnson, M.F., Jolli, V., Jonsell, M., Juliani, S.N., Jung, T.S., Kapoor, V., Kappes, H., Kati, V., Katovai, E., Kellner, K., Kessler, M., Kirby, K.R., Kittle, A.M., Knight, M.E., Knop, E., Kohler, F., Koivula, M., Kolb, A., Kone, M., Kőrösi, Á., Krauss, J., Kumar, A., Kumar, R., Kurz, D.J., Kutt, A.S., Lachat, T., Lantschner, V., Lara, F., Lasky, J.R., Latta, S.C., Laurance, W.F., Lavelle, P., Le Féon, V., LeBuhn, G., Légaré, J.-P., Lehouck, V., Lencinas, M.V., Lentini, P.E., Letcher, S.G., Li, Q., Litchwark, S.A., Littlewood, N.A., Liu, Y., Lo-Man-Hung, N., López-Quintero, C.A., Louhaichi, M., Lövei, G.L., Lucas-Borja, M.E., Luja, V.H., Luskin, M.S., MacSwiney G, M.C., Maeto, K., Magura, T., Mallari, N.A., Malone, L.A., Malonza, P.K., Malumbres-Olarte, J., Mandujano, S., Måren, I.E., Marin-Spiotta, E., Marsh, C.J., Marshall, E.J.P., Martínez, E., Martínez Pastur, G., Moreno Mateos, D., Mayfield, M.M., Mazimpaka, V., McCarthy, J.L., McCarthy, K.P., McFrederick, Q.S., McNamara, S., Medina, N.G., Medina, R., Mena, J.L., Mico, E., Mikusinski, G., Milder, J.C., Miller, J.R., Miranda-Esquivel, D.R., Moir, M.L., Morales, C.L., Muchane, M.N., Muchane, M., Mudri-Stojnic, S., Munira, A.N., Muoñz-Alonso, A., Munyekenye, B.F., Naidoo, R., Naithani, A., Nakagawa, M., Nakamura, A., Nakashima, Y., Naoe, S., Nates-Parra, G., Navarrete Gutierrez, D.A., Navarro-Iriarte, L., Ndang'ang'a, P.K., Neuschulz, E.L., Ngai, J.T., Nicolas, V., Nilsson, S.G., Noreika, N., Norfolk, O., Noriega, J.A., Norton, D.A., Nöske, N.M., Nowakowski, A.J., Numa, C., O'Dea, N., O'Farrell, P.J., Oduro, W., Oertli, S., Ofori-Boateng, C., Oke, C.O., Oostra, V., Osgathorpe, L.M., Otavo, S.E., Page, N.V., Paritsis, J., Parra-H, A., Parry, L., Pe'er, G., Pearman, P.B., Pelegrin, N., Pélissier, R., Peres, C.A., Peri, P.L., Persson, A.S., Petanidou, T., Peters, M.K., Pethiyagoda, R.S., Phalan, B., Philips, T.K., Pillsbury, F.C., Pincheira-Ulbrich, J., Pineda, E., Pino, J., Pizarro-Araya, J., Plumptre, A.J., Poggio, S.L., Politi, N., Pons, P., Poveda, K., Power, E.F., Presley, S.J., Proença, V., Quaranta, M., Quintero, C., Rader, R., Ramesh, B.R., Ramirez-Pinilla, M.P., Ranganathan, J., Rasmussen, C., Redpath-Downing, N.A., Reid, J.L., Reis, Y.T., Rey Benayas, J.M., Rey-Velasco, J.C., Reynolds, C., Ribeiro, D.B., Richards, M.H., Richardson, B.A., Richardson, M.J., Ríos, R.M., Robinson, R., Robles, C.A., Römbke, J., Romero-Duque, L.P., Rös, M., Rosselli, L., Rossiter, S.J., Roth, D.S., Roulston, T.H., Rousseau, L., Rubio, A.V., Ruel, J.-C., Sadler, J.P., Sáfián, S., Saldaña-Vázquez, R.A., Sam, K., Samnegård, U., Santana, J., Santos, X., Savage, J., Schellhorn, N.A., Schilthuizen, M., Schmiedel, U., Schmitt, C.B., Schon, N.L., Schüepp, C., Schumann, K., Schweiger, O., Scott, D.M., Scott, K.A., Sedlock, J.L., Seefeldt, S.S., Shahabuddin, G., Shannon, G., Sheil, D., Sheldon, F.H., Shochat, E., Siebert, S.J., Silva, F.A.B., Simonetti, J.A., Slade, E.M., Smith, J., Smith-Pardo, A.H., Sodhi, N.S., Somarriba, E.J., Sosa, R.A., Soto Quiroga, G., St-Laurent, M.-H., Starzomski, B.M., Stefanescu, C., Steffan-Dewenter, I., Stouffer, P.C., Stout, J.C., Strauch, A.M., Struebig, M.J., Su, Z., Suarez-Rubio, M., Sugiura, S., Summerville, K.S., Sung, Y.-H., Sutrisno, H., Svenning, J.-C., Teder, T., Threlfall, C.G., Tiitsaar, A., Todd, J.H., Tonietto, R.K., Torre, I., Tóthmérész, B., Tscharntke, T., Turner, E.C., Tylianakis, J.M., Uehara-Prado, M., Urbina-Cardona, N., Vallan, D., Vanbergen, A.J., Vasconcelos, H.L., Vassilev, K., Verboven, H.A.F., Verdasca, M.J., Verdú, J.R., Vergara, C.H., Vergara, P.M., Verhulst, J., Virgilio, M., Vu, L.V., Waite, E.M., Walker, T.R., Wang, H.-F., Wang, Y., Watling, J.I., Weller, B., Wells, K., Westphal, C., Wiafe, E.D., Williams, C.D., Willig, M.R., Woinarski, J.C.Z., Wolf, J.H.D., Wolters, V., Woodcock, B.A., Wu, J., Wunderle, J.M., Yamaura, Y., Yoshikura, S., Yu, D.W., Zaitsev, A.S., Zeidler, J., Zou, F., Collen, B., Ewers, R.M., Mace, G.M., Purves, D.W., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Purvis, A. (2017) The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project. Ecology and Evolution. 7: 145-188.EnllaçDoi: 10.1002/ece3.2579
Franklin, S.B., Hunter, J.T., De Cáceres, M., Dengler, J., Landucci, F., Krestov, P. (2016) Introducing the IAVS Vegetation Classification Working Group. Phytocoenologia. 46: 5-8.EnllaçDoi: 10.1127/phyto/2016/0116
Gil-Tena A., Aquilué N., Duane A., De Cáceres M., Brotons L. (2016) Mediterranean fire regime effects on pine-oak forest landscape mosaics under global change in NE Spain. European Journal of Forest Research. 135: 403-416.EnllaçDoi: 10.1007/s10342-016-0943-1
Afforestation after land abandonment and the occurrence of large fires have significantly altered the composition of pine-oak ecosystems in the Mediterranean since 1950s, the latter favouring the prevalence of oak forests and shrublands to that of pine forests. Nevertheless, our ability to integrate the processes driving these changes in modelling tools and to project them under future global change scenarios is scarce. This study aims at investigating how Mediterranean forest landscape composition and seral stages may be affected by mid-term changes in fire regime and climate. Taking Catalonia (NE Spain) as study area, we predicted yearly changes in forest landscape composition using the MEDFIRE model which allows assessing the effects of different fire regimes on landscape dynamics such as post-fire regeneration and afforestation. We considered three climatic treatments based on observed and projected climate, two fire regimes largely differing in the amount of area burnt and the number of large fires, and two fire suppression strategies. While projected afforestation continued to increase forest cover in the 2050 horizon, a climate-related harsher fire regime (higher amounts of area burnt) accelerated a shift towards landscapes progressively dominated by oaks and shrublands, thus precluding general forest maturation. Fire-sensitive pine species contributed to net forest cover loss in the worst scenarios. An active fire suppression strategy partially compensated the effects of a climate-related harsher fire regime on pine forest loss and rejuvenation, whereas variability in climate projections weakly affected spatial fire allocation and afforestation. Our results highlight the need to explicitly incorporate fire suppression strategies in forest landscape composition forecasts in the Mediterranean. At mid-term, large-scale afforestation, post-fire forest rejuvenation and landscape composition changes may alter forest ecosystem functioning and potentially interact with fire suppression planning. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Sánchez-Pinillos, M., Coll, L., De Cáceres, M., Ameztegui, A. (2016) Assessing the persistence capacity of communities facing natural disturbances on the basis of species response traits. Ecological Indicators. 66: 76-85.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.01.024
Vall-llosera, M., Llimona, F., de Cáceres, M., Sales, S., Sol, D. (2016) Competition, niche opportunities and the successful invasion of natural habitats. Biological Invasions. : 1-12.EnllaçDoi: 10.1007/s10530-016-1246-7
Caceres M.D., Martinez-Vilalta J., Coll L., Llorens P., Casals P., Poyatos R., Pausas J.G., Brotons L. (2015) Coupling a water balance model with forest inventory data to predict drought stress: The role of forest structural changes vs. climate changes. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 213: 77-90.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.06.012
Mechanistic water balance models can be used to predict soil moisture dynamics and drought stress in individual forest stands. Predicting current and future levels of plant drought stress is important not only at the local scale, but also at larger, landscape to regional, scales, because these are the management scales at which adaptation and mitigation strategies are implemented. To obtain reliable predictions of soil moisture and plant drought stress over large extents, water balance models need to be complemented with detailed information about the spatial variation of vegetation and soil attributes. We designed, calibrated and validated a water balance model that produces annual estimates of drought intensity and duration for all plant cohorts in a forest stand. Taking Catalonia (NE Spain) as a case study, we coupled this model with plot records from two Spanish forest inventories in which species identity, diameter and height of plant cohorts were available. Leaf area index of each plant cohort was estimated from basal area using species-specific relationships. Vertical root distribution for each species in each forest plot was estimated by determining the distribution that maximized transpiration in the model, given average climatic conditions, soil attributes and stand density. We determined recent trends (period 1980-2010) in drought stress for the main tree species in Catalonia; where forest growth and densification occurs in many areas as a result of rural abandonment and decrease of forest management. Regional increases in drought stress were detected for most tree species, although we found high variation in stress changes among individual forest plots. Moreover, predicted trends in tree drought stress were mainly due to changes in leaf area occurred between the two forest inventories rather than to climatic trends. We conclude that forest structure needs to be explicitly considered in assessments of plant drought stress patterns and trends over large geographic areas, and that forest inventories are useful sources of data provided that reasonably good estimates of soil attributes and root distribution are available. Our approach coupled with recent improvements in forest survey technologies may allow obtaining spatially continuous and precise assessments of drought stress. Further efforts are needed to calibrate drought-related demographic processes before water balance and drought stress estimates can be fully used for the accurate prediction of drought impacts. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
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