Pascual D., Pla E., Fons-Esteve J., Abdul-Malak D. (2017) Climate change impacts on water availability and human security in the intercontinental biosphere reserve of the mediterranean (Morocco-Spain). Environmental Change and Human Security in Africa and the Middle East. : 75-93.EnllaçDoi: 10.1007/978-3-319-45648-5_4
The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world most vulnerable regions to global change effects. Global and regional climate change scenarios foresee an increase in the average annual temperature over the planet’s mean. These scenarios project an increasing frequency of drought episodes adding to the complexity of water scarcity management and questioning the future sustainability of water resource uses. This study assesses the potential water vulnerability in the Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve of the Mediterranean (IBRM), located in the western side of the Mediterranean Basin between Spain (Europe) and Morocco (Africa). The vulnerability assessment proposes an innovative and multidisciplinary approach based on the use of climate change scenarios, a hydro-ecological model and the participation of stakeholders and local experts in expert meetings. Future scenarios draw a more arid climate for the IBRM, with more frequent water scarcity phenomena. A reduction of around 28.1-30.3 % is expected in stream flows by 2070. Agricultural water demands are expected to increase between 7.5 and 16 % in the Moroccan side in order to maintain the current production standards, whereas Spanish pastures are expected to maintain current productions with no need of supplementary water supply. Within forests, tree covered areas showed a higher potential vulnerability to future climate change than shrublands proving higher adaptation to arid conditions. Finally, the tourism will be impacted by the increase in summer temperature and in water supply shortages. Moreover, a significant spatial segregation of impacts is observed. Higher altitudes will be less affected by climate change and changes may be relevant to biodiversity but not to human activities. On the contrary, lower altitudes and coastal areas will experience an increasing water demand to sustain different uses by the end of the century in a higher water scarcity context. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017.
Vicente-Serrano S.M., Zabalza-Martínez J., Borràs G., López-Moreno J.I., Pla E., Pascual D., Savé R., Biel C., Funes I., Azorin-Molina C., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., Martín-Hernández N., Peña-Gallardo M., Alonso-González E., Tomas-Burguera M., El Kenawy A. (2017) Extreme hydrological events and the influence of reservoirs in a highly regulated river basin of northeastern Spain. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 12: 13-32.EnllaçDoi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.01.004
Study region The Segre basin (northeastern Spain). Study focus The Segre basin is extensively regulated, through a dense network of dams, during the second half of the 20th century. This study assessed the impact of river regulation on the evolution of hydroclimatological extreme events across the basin during the past six decades (1950–2013). We assessed whether the occurrence of floods and hydrological droughts has changed, and whether these changes have differed spatially between the headwaters and lower areas of the basin. For this purpose, we employed a set of hydroclimatological indices in order to quantify the evolution of the amount as well as the frequency of quantiles of high precipitation and flood events. Changes in these variables were assessed by means of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall Tau coefficient. New hydrological insights Results reveal a general reduction in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in the Segre basin from 1950 to 2013, which corresponded to a general reduction in high flows measured at various gauged stations across the basin. While this study demonstrates spatial differences in the decrease of streamflow between the headwaters and the lower parts of the basin, mainly associated with changes in river regulation, there was no reduction in the frequency of the extraordinary floods. Changes in water management practices in the basin have significantly impacted the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts downstream of the main dams, as a consequence of the intense water regulation to meet water demands for irrigation and livestock farms. Nonetheless, the hydrological response of the headwaters to these droughts differed markedly from that of the lower areas of the basin. © 2017 The Author(s)
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