Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation

Audsley E., Trnka M., Sabate S., Maspons J., Sanchez A., Sandars D., Balek J., Pearn K. (2014) Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation. Climatic Change. : 0-0.
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Doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1164-6

Resum:

Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapid What-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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Urbanisation tolerance and the loss of avian diversity

Sol D., Gonzalez-Lagos C., Moreira D., Maspons J., Lapiedra O. (2014) Urbanisation tolerance and the loss of avian diversity. Ecology Letters. 17: 942-950.
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Doi: 10.1111/ele.12297

Resum:

Urbanisation is considered an important driver of current biodiversity loss, but the underlying causes are not fully understood. It is generally assumed that this loss reflects the fact that most organisms do not tolerate well the environmental alterations associated with urbanisation. Nevertheless, current evidence is inconclusive and the alternative that the biodiversity loss is the result of random mechanisms has never been evaluated. Analysing changes in abundance between urbanised environments and their non-urbanised surroundings of > 800 avian species from five continents, we show here that although random processes account for part of the species loss associated with urbanisation, much of the loss is associated with a lack of appropriate adaptations of most species for exploiting resources and avoiding risks of the urban environments. These findings have important conservation implications because the extinction of species with particular features should have higher impact on biodiversity and ecosystem function than a random loss. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

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