Pascual D., Pla E., Lopez-Bustins J.A., Retana J., Terradas J. (2015) Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia, Spain [Impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau dans le bassin méditerranéen : une étude de cas en Catalogne, Espagne]. Hydrological Sciences Journal. : 0-0.EnllaçDoi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.947290
Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz © 2015 IAHS
Lopez-Bustins J.A., Pascual D., Pla E., Retana J. (2013) Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments. Natural Hazards. 69: 1405-1421.EnllaçDoi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0754-3
In the present study, we analyze the magnitude and frequency of long-term droughts throughout the present century in Catalonia in the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain). In fact, this western Mediterranean region has recently suffered one of the most extreme dry episodes (2006-2008) in the last decades. This calls for further study of future perspectives of drought variability at the local scale. We selected three medium-sized catchments on the Catalan littoral: Fluvià, Tordera and Siurana. We employed both instrumental and simulated temperature and rainfall data to calculate two multi-scalar drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Instrumental data consisted of several weather stations for a recent period: 1984-2008. Future projections covering the 2001-2100 period were extracted from a dynamical downscaling procedure at a 15-km horizontal grid resolution, nesting the mesoscale model MM5 into the atmosphere-ocean coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, performed by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. We calculated 24-month SPI and SPEI values for the instrumental and simulated periods, and no changes were found in drought variability for the early twenty-first century. For the mid-century, high climatic variability was detected, as extremely dry and wet periods might alternate according to the SPI values. At the end of the present century, we generally detected, particularly in the dry catchment of southern Catalonia, Siurana, more severe and longer droughts than the last extreme drought (2006-2008). There is a need to implement appropriate and specific adaptation strategies for water management of each catchment over the next decades to reduce the risk of the forecasted drought conditions. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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